The question is justified: if outlined the steps and the road of getting alive cells can we insert probabilities to each step? The answer is YES, excepted only one.
Finally, we have to take a declaration: providing that it was followed al step and finally gained a functionable cell, IT BECAME AUTOMATEDLY ALIVE OR NOT?
OR, WHAT HAVE TO HAPPEN TO START THIS TO LIVE?
These figures estimations since no one could be reconstract relevant circimstances. But the real chance most be even worse. The estation from is: = 1*1-60 ! Practically it means to be IMPOSSIBLE!
Just imagine this chance:
P(inanimate -> living) =
0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 001
It is absolutly impossible. :(